Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered late last year, carries a 1.2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. With a potential size of up to 330 feet (100 meters), it could pass as close as 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers). Currently rated level 3 on the Torino Scale, its most probable path suggests a near miss. Ongoing monitoring by NASA and ESA will provide clearer insights as its trajectory evolves in the years ahead.
An asteroid designated as 2024 YR4, discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in December 2024, has a 1.2% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. Initially spotted on December 27, 2024, by ATLAS using a telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, the asteroid's existence was confirmed two days later, with additional data provided by the Catalina Sky Survey. The asteroid measures approximately 196 feet (60 meters), similar to half a football field in size. The object, estimated to be between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) across, has an uncertain size due to variability in surface reflectivity, which also affects its orbital trajectory. Radar observations planned for 2028 are expected to provide more precise measurements.
The asteroid's current distance from Earth is approximately 27 million miles, with its closest approach to date occurring on Christmas Day 2024, when it passed within 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers) of the planet. Its next close approach is anticipated in 2028, within 5 million miles (8 million kilometers) of Earth.
The potential impact scenario in 2032 could bring it as close as 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) to Earth, placing it well within the range of impact zones identified by risk assessments. The primary impact corridor, based on current orbital trajectory calculations, spans South America, the Atlantic Ocean, and sub-Saharan Africa. This corridor could extend from the Pacific Ocean to northern India, depending on the asteroid's final trajectory.
However, the probability of impact remains low at 1 in 83, or approximately 1.2% to 1.3%. The asteroid is rated 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter with a more than 1% chance of impact but with a most likely outcome of a near miss. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are actively monitoring its path to refine predictions and assess potential risks further.
While the asteroid's composition remains unknown, its size suggests it could cause regional damage if it were to strike Earth. Continued observation and improved data in the coming years will be critical in determining whether 2024 YR4 poses a significant threat or will safely pass by Earth in 2032.
